Muslim-Muslim ticket is, therefore, only a phantom in the minds of political analysts. Tinubu’s utterances before the primaries had already precluded the possibility. If he didn’t become vice president to Buhari, as he said, due to him sharing the same religion, how would he now appoint a Muslim running mate? No way!
Tinubu has a colossal challenge deciding on a running mate. With Peter Obi’s Labour Party dominance of the Southeast and the strong presence of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) in the South-South, Tinubu must not only look for a competent running mate from the North, but a popular and credible one.
A Muslim-Muslim ticket had been predicted to be the game that would favour Tinubu in the North. Popularity would work in the case of Zulum, while astute politicians like El-Rufa’i and Kashim Shettima would amass votes by virtue of their determination, commitment, grassroots support and political energy. A Pantami vice presidency, would, accord popular and religious credibility.
Still on, it doesn’t mean a Muslim-Muslim ticket doesn’t have its own political implications. It would receive the harshest snare from advocates of fairness, equity, and balance in Federal Character; and from civil society organizations and religious bodies; and from bigots who had baselessly critized the Buhari-administration of a perceived “Islamization” agenda. They would accuse Tinubu of coming to further the agenda.
Muslim-Muslim ticket is, therefore, only a phantom in the minds of political analysts. Tinubu’s utterances before the primaries had already precluded the possibility. If he didn’t become vice president to Buhari, as he said, due to him sharing the same religion, how would he now appoint a Muslim running mate? No way!
And now picking a Christian running mate from the North. Tinubu’s recent meetings with Northern APC Governors indicate the slot would likely go to one of them. Simon Lalong, Plateau State Governor, is therefore the likely candidate. Simon Lalong has a reputation of being Muslim-friendly especially with the quelling of religious crises in Plateau State under his administration. However, how much votes can Lalong help garner in the North Central? PDP has a growing presence in his state and the neighboring Benue State is also PDP. The religious appeal will not work in the Muslim-dominated Niger, Nassarawa and Kogi. APC’s survival depends more on political factors. The only state APC might be certain of is Kwara, due to ethnic factor. The Yorubas in Kwara will root for Tinubu.
Coming back to Northwest. Kano, previously a stronghold of the APC, now has Kwankwaso aspiring for president. APC will lose block votes despite Ganduje’s effort to deliver for APC. APC’s chances in Kaduna and Katsina is faced with the growing popularity of the PDP, so also in Kebbi and Zamfara. In Sokoto, it doesn’t stand a chance.
In Northeast, the only states APC might deliver are Yobe and Borno due to the tradition of block votes. PDP will deliver Adamawa, Bauchi and Taraba. APC will still lead in Gombe.
A question to ask is, what influence will, say, a Lalong vice presidency exert on the “core” North? Will the Muslims in Zamfara or Kebbi, for example, be comfortable with a Christian representative in the presidency? Can Simon Lalong’s aura work in regions outside the North Central? With only Southwest as his stronghold, Tinubu requires a running mate that can garner much votes in the North. Can Lalong deliver the job? I doubt. Even in North Central his influence might be confined to his state under a growing PDP threat.
These are some of the challenges facing Tinubu’s choice of running mate. We can not deny the role of ethnicity and religion in Nigeria’s politics especially in critical times such as this. One day citizens will elect leaders based on competence alone as we have been hoping, but we have not yet reached there.
Let’s see how it goes.
Aliyu Danladi
