(OPINION) APC’s Consensus War – Lawal Ogienagbon

What is consensus? The question looks simple and straightforward, but in political circles, consensus has become a dreadful word in the contestation for the highest office in the land. Consensus means what it means. It is when two or more people agree on something.

Such an agreement brings about amity in the peaceful resolution of the issue in contention. It brings about a win-win situation for all because everybody agreed on the outcome of the matter. Consensus is not easy to forge though because of varied interests. Why? People tend to see things from different perspectives. It is this difference in outlook and thinking that makes politics tick.

We have seen this manifest in the countdown to the 2023 elections. The political scene is agog, as various interests contend for elective offices. By far, the jostle for the Presidency is the highpoint of it all. The parties have since initiated moves to pick their standard-bearers for the presidential election slated for February next year. The main opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and Labour Party (LP) have picked their own candiadates.

Former Vice President Atiku Abubakar who ran on PDP’s platform in 2019, with Peter Obi as his running mate is back as the party’s candidate. Interestingly, Obi is no longer with Atiku. He has picked LP’s ticket as its candidate. Other parties are in the process of doing the same thing. By now, the issue would have been long settled, if the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) had not extended the deadline for parties’ primaries.

The ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) cashed in on the situation to shift its presidential primaries from May 29 -June 1 to June 6 – 8. Although, the parties claimed that the extension was at their instance, political pundits think otherwise. They believe that INEC extended the deadline to favour APC. Be that as it may, the ruling party is still ruing how it should pick its candidate. Should it be by direct, indirect or consensus option as provided for in the Electoral Act? Another thorny issue facing the party is where its candidate should come from. North or South?

PDP threw its ticket open and Atiku, who is from the North won it on May 29.

The Abdullahi Adamu-led APC seems to be in a quandary about the mode of its primaries. With no fewer than 25 aspirants set to battle for its ticket, the party’s hands are full. How does it manage such a large number of contenders for a single ticket without acrimony? Well, that is its headache! It is not that it did not try to curtail the number from the outset, but it seemed the mechanism it put in place did not work. Rather than deter aspirants, the high cost of its nomination forms, N100 million, seemed to have propelled them to join the race.

Then, the party tried to be clever by half by inserting a condition in the forms, which required aspirants to sign an undated withdrawal letter. It is now clear why it did that, with President Muhammadu Buhari, the party Leader, talking of exercising his right to choose his successor as some APC governors did in their states. A case of what is sauce for the goose is sauce for the gander! What the President wants to do is to get all the other aspirants to step down for the person he prefers. Who is that person?

Only the President knows. He has known that person for long as he said in a television interview that he was keeping his choice close to his chest so that the person did not come to harm. The President, like every other party member, has the right to support any aspirant. Though as the party’s Leader, his preferred aspirant may end up carrying the day as no member would want to go against his choice. But, why did he wait this long before coming out categorically to ask that he be allowed to pick his successor?

If he had pointed the party towards the person’s direction before now, perhaps things would not have come to a head. After buying forms for N100 million and logging thousands of kilometres on the road, will it be appropriate to tell an aspirant offhandedly at this stage to withdraw from the race because the President has a preferred candidate? The party should think things through before it acts. It should also remember that it does not have the last say on this matter if it acts in brèach of the Electoral Act and INEC Guidelines. APC must tread gingerly because whatever it does may end up being seen as imposition and not consensus

The Act is clear and succinct on how a consensus candidate can emerge. Section 84 (9) states: A political party that adopts a consensus candidate shall secure a written consent of all cleared aspirants for the position, including their voluntary withdrawal from the race and their endorsement of the consensus candidate. The law warns that where the party cannot secure the buy-in of all the cleared aspirants for the purpose of a consensus candidate, it shall resort to the use of either direct or indirect primaries.

What happens if all the ‘cleared’ aspirants do not agree on  a consensus candidate? I suspect that to avoid that the party may not clear recalcitrant aspirants for the primaries. With some governors already saying that they would go with the President, the party will enjoy their support if it axes such aspirants. Where will all this leave APC? It may come out the worst for it at the polls. It is sad that APC which was perceived as a the poster-boy of our democracy is the one involved in this kind of misadventure.

The President had all the time in the world to pick his successor and let the world know who that person is. He slept on that right and now that the contenders are ready for battle, he wants to pull the chestnut out of fire. There is danger ahead for APC. The President and the party are unwittingly setting the stage for acrimony, which this column cautioned against last week. To avoid a fractious party ahead of the elections, the primaries should be allowed to hold as scheduled, with the best candidate picking the presidential ticket.

The price for flouting the law is heavy. According to Section 84 (13), where a political party fails to comply with the provisions of this Act in the conduct of its primaries, its candidate for election shall not be included in the election for the particular position in issue. Is APC ready for this?  A word, they say, is enough for the wise.

Lawal Ogienagbon