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The 2023 elections are shaping up to be one of the most dicey, yet polarized elections Nigeria has had since the advent of modern democracy in 1999.
As the 2023 general elections approach in under 90 days, many political pundits and analysts have predicted victories for each of the 3 leading candidates as measured or deduced from many criteria.
However, for the purpose of this article, the criteria to be relied on shall be the numbers from preceding elections, traditional voting patterns and a possible best case worse case scenario for each political party and candidate putting forth dynamics and possible happenings.
BOLA AHMED TINUBU/APC
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The All Progressives Congress is the current ruling party in Nigeria having secure two victories in 2015 and 2019 with incumbent President Muhammadu Buhari having garnered over 15 Million votes in both cycles. The parties larger support base is resident in the NW,NE & the SW. The party achieved victory twice, garnering 12M votes in the North owing to the cult following of Buhari in the North, 2M in the SW and 1M spread across the SS & SE.
For the 2023 elections, Bola Tinubu is on the Ballot as a replacement for Buhari who will complete 8 years in May 2023.
By antecedents, there are 4M available votes in the SW where Tinubu hails from and his strongest political base considering that he is contending with Atiku & Kwankwaso for Northern votes which was APC’s traditional bloc vote base.
To be in the contest proper, Tinubu has to get at least 70% of the Votes in the SW amounting to 2.8-3M votes in a best case scenario where there’s an overwhelming home based solidarity for him.
In the NW, NE & NC at least 17M vote on an average, Tinubu has to get at least 50% of the votes amounting to 8.5M votes to even stand a chance because in a case where there’s any form of split in the North, The BAT dream dies a natural death instantly because the numbers are simply not there.
The feasibility of getting 10M votes out of a possible 17M with two Northerners Atiku & Kwankwaso in the jostling for the same votes & regional sentiments also working against him in the region makes it highly unlikely for TINUBU.
Also, the fact that Kwankwaso is in the contest and taking a large chunk of Traditional 1.5M+ votes in Kano that are naturally APC votes decimates Tinubu’s chances further.
The inability of the APC to also penetrate the SS and SE politically in the last 7 years also makes it impossible for BAT to make up the numbers with the impending split of Buhari’s 12M standard votes thanks to Atiku & RMK.
Tinubu’s best case overall tally stands at 11.5M votes
PETER OBI/LP
Peter obi’s “Obidient” mantra is seen by many as political revolution of enthusiastic new voters and a large potion of young people desirous of something new.
It is however not yet ascertained that this enthusiasm has the wit and grit to transcend from an Online buzz to actual votes on election day at the grassroot.
The party recently participated in the Ekiti and Osun state Gubernatorial elections in which it garnered 195 & 2729 votes respectively amounting to 0.05 & 0.34% of the total votes cast in both elections.
The party according to many speculators, is prevalent in the SE, parts of the SS and parts of the NC.
By electoral antecedent the SE has a total voter base of under 2M voters.
At an overwhelming best, Obi gets 70% of the votes in the SE amounting to 1.4M, it could turn out to be higher or less but voting numbers in the region have never reached 3M.
The SS has at least 4–5M voters going by recent elections in 2015 & 2019. Obi hopes to get at least 40% of the votes here which will be a tremendous wonderful outing for him considering that PDP controls 5/6 states in the region and have never lost a presidential election in any of the 6 SS states and they have a son as the V.P candidate of PDP.
The possibility of Obi getting 40% in the region remains highly unlikely.
If he’s able to pull it off, he’ll be taking home at least 2M votes best case scenario.
The NC is another zone the Obidients believe can swing to Obi. With 4M average voters, the zone has a tradition of splitting votes amongst the two top contenders. With BAT & Atiku in the gunning for votes in the region, Obi will do tremendously well to get 30% of the votes amounting to 1.2M bringing his best case projected tally to 4.6M votes.
Unfortunately, the numbers are simply not adding up for obi and LP even with best case scenario projections.
The lack of political grassroot structure, nationwide spread, elected stakeholders and financial warchest, Labour Party Simply doesn’t have what it takes to win a Presidential Election in Nigeria.
ATIKU ABUBAKAR/PDP
The Former V.P is the only candidate amongst the top 3–4 candidates jostling for the Presidency that is not a first timer.
He has represented AC in 2007, PDP in 2019 & is set to represent PDP once again in 2023.
In 2019, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar came second behind Muhammadu Buhari of APC with 11.2M votes split into 5.5M in the North & 5.7M in the south.
Despite not victorious, Atiku and PDP won 17 states plus the FCT making a perfect 18/37 states.
Atiku is projected to flip many Northwest & Northeast & Northcentral states in his favor which were previously won by Buhari.
The former VP is also projected to have a reduction in the volume of votes he got in the SE,SS & SW this term thanks to Tinubu and Obi being in the race.
However on the numbers side of things, in an absolute worse case scenario he loses half of the 5.7 million votes he got in the south which leaves him with 2.8M votes.
In 2019 against a popular Buhari, he got 5.5M votes in the North as against Buhari’s 11.9M.
In 2023 however, Atiku’s 5.5M votes are set to geometrically improve because he’s contesting against a Bola Tinubu with no political pedigree amongst the northern populace.
Atiku is set to take at least 60% of Buhari’s 12M votes amounting to 7M votes in tandem with his established 5.5M votes which according to speculations might decline to 3–4M thanks to LP making some headway in some parts of NC & Southern Kaduna.
This brings Atiku’s projected tally to 14M votes as against Tinubu’s possible 11.5M and Obi’s 4.6M.
Atiku’s slight advantage over others is the spread of his party across the country and the solidarity votes he’s on course to get this term in his home zone like BAT & Obi in their respective domains.
At least 28–30M people are projected to vote in the 2023 General elections.
Abdullahi Abba
